Election Night Cheat Sheet
It is here! The polls are about to close and we will be watching the results with baited breath. I have written a cheat sheet to each competitive state. They have been listed in the order of poll closings. I am including key counties to watch, the margins needed for Biden to win in the key counties, how reporting should look for each state and my personal county predictions in each state.
4:00PM PT:
Florida:
In 2016, Hillary did very well in Miami Dade County (13% of FL’s population,) winning 63–34 with a 290k vote lead. She also ran ahead of Obama in Orange and Osceola which both have high Puerto Rican populations. If the margins remained static in the rest of the state, Hillary would have won FL by about 230k votes, or about 3 points. She lost however because Trump dramatically improved over Romney in North Central Florida in counties such as Pasco and Sumter with high populations of retirees.
In 2018, many Democrats including myself thought we would win because Republicans were winning Pasco by 15 (Trump won it by 21) and Democrats were narrowly winning Duval, Pinellas, St. Lucie and Seminole counties which all voted narrowly for Trump. Duval and Seminole counties are both good barometers for the suburban vote and Pinellas and St. Lucie are good barometers for elderly voters, especially elderly voters without a college degree.
Democrats narrowly lost FL though due to underperforming in Miami Dade (winning by 21 points, compared to 29 points). In order to win FL, Biden needs to match or exceed the gains in suburban areas and among WWC voters while hitting Obama 2012 numbers among Latinos. With that being said, there is too much attention being given to Miami Dade when Democrats are performing well in other areas such as Broward in the early vote.
Key counties:
Duval county (Jacksonville): Biden 3%+
Miami Dade (Miami): Biden 23%+
Pinellas (St. Pete): Biden 5%+
Seminole (suburban Orlando): Biden 3%+
Reporting: Early vote reports first, Dem leaning, then E-Day and the Panhandle (after 5pm PT), more conservative. The final votes may be Dem leaning.
Benchmark: I recommend viewing the 2018 gubernatorial results as a comparison. Gillum lost 0.4% with this map so Biden needs to run slightly ahead overall.
Georgia:
Georgia has had signs of shifting left but not until 2018 did Georgia burst onto the scene of “swing states.” Georgia has become a competitive state due to the growing African American, Latino and college educated white populations in the Atlanta area. One area that Democrats must keep an eye on is the smaller cities and rural areas such as Augusta, Macon, Savannah and Columbus. An example is rural Peach county which Hillary lost in 2016 due to low African American turnout but was won by Obama in 2012. In 2018, Abrams increased turnout in the Atlanta area and made inroads with suburban areas. Gwinnett county for example, a suburban Atlanta county was won by 33 points in 2004 by Bush but was won by 13 points by Abrams. In 1990, Gwinnett county was 91% white but is now <40% white, with growing African American, Latino and AAPI populations.
To win Georgia, Biden not only needs to match Abrams’s margins in the Atlanta area but also must do so in the rural areas. Another place to watch is Forsyth county (suburban Atlanta) which Romney won by 62% but Trump won by 47% and Kemp won by 42%. It is diversifying rapidly and has many college educated whites. While Trump will win it, Biden is on track to win Georgia if he can reduce Trump’s margin here.
Key counties:
Forsyth (suburban Atlanta): Trump <40%
Gwinnett (suburban Atlanta): Biden 15%+
Peach: Biden win
Reporting: Historically, Georgia has the rural Republican areas report first and the Democratic areas near Atlanta report later. With changes in early voting however, the reporting may change.
Predictions: Please view the 2018 gubernatorial election where Stacey Abrams ran as a benchmark for Democrats. Biden needs to overperform her by 1.4%+ on average in order to win.
4:30pm
North Carolina:
North Carolina is in a tug of war similarly to Florida. There are fast growing urban areas including Charlotte (Mecklenberg county) and Raleigh (Wake County) but they are counterbalanced by Republican trending rural areas. In 2016, Hillary ran ahead of Obama in the urban areas and would have won if the rural margins did not change. They did change in Trump’s favor so she lost by 3.6%.
Biden’s goal is to keep Republican margins down in the rural areas (and flip counties such as Robeson which is an Obama/Trump county) and produce large margins in the urban areas. Wake has already exceeded 2016 turnout as well as Durham (Duke University) which is a good sign for turnout of young people and progressives. The question is though, especially in Wake county, did Biden bring out enough new voters and persuade enough suburban voters to outvote the rural areas?
Key counties:
Mecklenberg (Charlotte): Biden 30%+
New Hanover (Wilmington): Biden win
Robeson: Biden win
Wake: Biden 25%+
Reporting: Early votes will report first and they are likely to be Democratic. The later vote will be Election Day vote and will be more Republican. The final vote is likely to be late arriving absentees and should be more Democratic.
Prediction: I see a Biden+2 win based on the polling. Look at the 2016 gubernatorial race to see whether Biden is running ahead or behind these numbers.
Ohio:
Ohio until recently was seen as a safe Trump state due to Trump’s strength among WWC voters. Hillary lost Ohio by eight even though Obama won it by three due to Trump’s gains among WWC voters. Biden however has a shot here (538 gives him a 45% chance of winning) because Biden can make inroads among WWC voters and capitalize on Trump’s unpopularity in urban areas. The key to winning Ohio in addition to moving through counties like Portage in the northeast industrial area is also winning suburban Republicans in places like Delaware county (right outside Columbus). Biden also will need to win big in traditionally Republican but now Democratic leaning Hamilton county (Cincinnati). In order to win back Ohio though, he cannot just make inroads in WWC areas such as Portage county and suburban areas such as Delaware county, he must do both.
Key counties:
Delaware County (suburban Columbus): Trump <10
Erie County (industrial Obama/Trump county): Biden +2
Hamilton County (Cincinnati) Biden 15+ Portage County (Kent State University): Biden win
Wood County (Bowling Green): Biden win
Reporting: Early votes report first which are very Democratic leaning. The Election Day is very Republican leaning. There is a period of a couple of weeks where provisional ballots are counted. These provisional ballots normally lean Democratic and can be crucial if the margin in Ohio is <1.
I predict Trump +2 in Ohio. Here is my county by county prediction map should Trump win by 2. View spreadsheet for individual county percentages.
Dark Red: Trump 70%+, Red: Trump 60%-69%, Salmon Red: Trump 55%-59%, Light Red: Trump 50%-54%. Light Blue: Biden 50%-54%, Periwinkle: Biden 55%-59%, Blue 60%-69%, Dark Blue: Biden 70%+.
5:00pm
Pennsylvania:
Two key groups Vice President Biden appears to be gaining support from are college educated whites and WWC voters. Pennsylvania has both groups, with college educated whites in suburban Philadelphia and Pittsburgh and WWC voters between the metropolitan areas.
The two bellwethers are Erie county and Northampton county. A win in Erie county shows Biden is winning back at least some of the WWC Obama/Trump voters. A win in Northampton county (Bethlehem) shows this as well and shows Biden is performing well with Latinos. Other places to keep an eye on is Luzerne county (it’s a county near Scranton that Trump won by 19 in 2016. While Biden may not win it, a goal would be to keep Trump’s margin there closer to 10–15 points).
Erie: Biden win Luzerne: Trump <15Northampton: Biden win
Reporting: GOP votes will come in first and Democratic votes could take a few days to come in. Democrats are primarily voting absentee and those votes will not be fully reported until at least the end of the week (although some results may be available on Election night). Please promise me you will not panic if the results on Election night favor the Republicans.
I predict Pennsylvania is Biden +5. See below for my county by county prediction. View the spreadsheet with individual predictions here:
Dark Red: Trump 70%+, Red: Trump 60%-69%, Salmon Red: Trump 55%-59%, Light Red: Trump 50%-54%. Light Blue: Biden 50%-54%, Periwinkle: Biden 55%-59%, Blue 60%-69%, Dark Blue: Biden 70%+.
6:00pm
Arizona:
Two words: Maricopa county. Not only is Maricopa county 60% of the state population, it also votes close to the statewide average so if Biden wants to win Arizona, he must win Maricopa county. Hillary lost Arizona by three points in 2016 but Biden is likely to improve on it with a strong performance with suburban voters in Maricopa county. One county that Biden may try to flip is Yuma county which is heavily Latino and Trump won by one point. In 2018 however, Sen. Sinema (D) won Arizona and lost Yuma county so Yuma county is not required for a Democratic win.
Key Counties:
Maricopa: Biden +2
Reporting:
Due to the high Democratic surge in early voting, the first votes should favor Biden, the votes in the “middle” should favor Trump and the votes at the end should favor Biden (some absentee ballots may not be counted until next week).
Michigan:
Biden is likely to win Michigan not only due to inroads among the WWC there but also due to his improvement in the suburban areas. Biden is likely to improve with suburban voters and WWC voters but he must ensure that these more than offset population loss in Detroit.
While Macomb county (a suburb of Detroit) gets extensive coverage, Biden does not need to win it (although he needs to improve over Hillary’s 12 point loss there) in order to win Michigan.
Kent County: Biden win
Oakland County: Biden 10+
Reporting: This is more difficult to predict since the Election Day vote will likely come in first. Some absentees may be reported as well since urban areas in Michigan could count them starting November 2.
Prediction: Biden +8. See below for the county by county map and see the individual county predicted percentages here.
Dark Red: Trump 70%+, Red: Trump 60%-69%, Salmon Red: Trump 55%-59%, Light Red: Trump 50%-54%. Light Blue: Biden 50%-54%, Dodger Blue: Biden 55%-59%, Blue 60%-69%, Dark Blue: Biden 70%+.
Texas:
Thanks to the work of groups like Beto O’Rourke’s “Powered by People” and other Democratic organizations, Texas is considered a competitive state (Kamala Harris campaigned here on Friday). While 2020 may not be the year Texas flips, it will be a close race regardless of the results. Democrats have already surpassed 2016 turnout in Harris county (Houston), Dallas County (Dallas) Travis county (Austin) and Hidalgo county (Rio Grande Valley). Democrats not only need high turnout in those counties but also need to flip Democratic trending suburban areas. Examples include Williamson county (Austin area) and while they do not need to flip Collin county (Dallas suburbs), they need to get close.
Collin (Dallas suburbs): Trump <4%
Harris (Houston): Biden 20%+
Tarrant (Fort Worth): Biden 4+
Williamson (Austin suburbs): Biden 5%+
Reporting: 9.6 million Texans voted early (more than all the 2016 votes). Those votes will be reported first and they will likely lean Democratic. The later votes will be E-Day votes and they will likely lean Republican.
Prediction: I see Trump narrowly winning Texas (hopefully I am wrong). But if Biden pulls an upset, watch for a similar map to Beto’s but a few points better for Biden.
Wisconsin:
Normally Wisconsin is a “tug of war” between the Milwaukee suburbs/Fox River Valley and Milwauke/Madison/western WI. With Trump’s gains in western WI however that allowed him to win in 2016, Biden needs to win those areas back and also have a more urban/suburban coalition.
Look for Biden to deliver eye popping margins in Dane county (Madison) and narrow normally Republican margins in suburban counties near Milwaukee such as Ozuakee. Also, he will need to flip back the bellwether counties of Kenosha Sauk which voted for Obama in 2012 and voted for Trump in 2016.
Kenosha: Biden+2
Ozuakee: Trump <20
Sauk County: Biden +4
Reporting: Absentees may not report fully until the end of the night. Milwaukee plans to report them all by the end of the night but it is unclear how much they will have counted when the polls close. So it is likely that the early returns in Wisconsin will be good for Trump but as the night goes on, Biden will gain.
Prediction: Biden +6. The below map is my county by county prediction. See here for the county percentages.
Dark Red: Trump 70%+, Red: Trump 60%-69%, Salmon Red: Trump 55%-59%, Light Red: Trump 50%-54%. Light Blue: Biden 50%-54%, Periwinkle: Biden 55%-59%, Blue 60%-69%, Dark Blue: Biden 70%+.
7:00PM:
Iowa:
Iowa was initially written off due to Trump’s nine point win there in 2016. After a strong midterm performance in 2018 (Democrats flipped two congressional seats) and some polling showing a close race, Iowa is back on the target list (Biden visited last Friday). Traditionally, Democrats won Iowa by sweeping the eastern rural areas. With rural areas shifting more Republican, Biden needs to win large margins in urban areas such as Polk county (Des Moines) and also win just enough rural counties such as Marshall county which is likely to be close to the final result.
Key Counties:
Dallas (Des Moines suburbs): Biden win
Marshall (rural eastern Iowa): Biden 2%+
Polk (Des Moines): Biden 20%+
Reporting:
Democratic areas in Iowa come in first and early voting which is Democratic reports first as well. Republican votes will come in later.
Prediction:
Despite the DMR poll showing Trump +7, other polling (including some that predicted the caucuses correctly) shows a closer race. Therefore, I predict Trump +1. See the county by county percentages here.
Dark Red: Trump 70%+, Red: Trump 60%-69%, Salmon Red: Trump 55%-59%, Light Red: Trump 50%-54%. Light Blue: Biden 50%-54%, Periwinkle: Biden 55%-59%, Blue 60%-69%, Dark Blue: Biden 70%+.
Nevada:
While I did work full time for the Hillary campaign in Nevada and have political experience there, I defer on all things Nevada to Jon Ralston. The goal in Nevada is for Biden to win Clark county (Las Vegas and nearly 70% of the state population) by 10 or more points and win Washoe county (Reno). The other 12%-13% of the state is very conservative but is unlikely to outvote the bluer areas if Biden is winning Clark by 10+.
Key Counties:
Clark (Las Vegas): Biden 10+
Washoe (Reno): Biden win
